Friday, May 1, 2015

Moving Averages and the iPad

Dr. Drang:

I think this way of presenting the data makes the iPad’s situation much clearer. Sales are not “flattening”, nor are they “flat.” They were flat in 2013, but now they’re going down, and they have been for a year. What’s most interesting to me is how the upward trend, still very strong in 2012, just stopped dead in 2013. This is something you can’t see—or at least I can’t see it—in the graphs of raw data.


The sales decline can’t be explained by cannibalization from the iPhone. The problem with the iPad started when iPhone sales were one of its slowest growth periods.


The real questions are when will iPad sales level off again—this time coming down from above instead of up from below—and what are Apple’s plans to reverse the trend. There’s no reason to get hysterical and start thinking the iPad will turn into the iPod, but iPad sales have been in this state for two years, and there are no outward signs of any change from Cupertino. I do wonder if the iPad has been starved of attention because of the iPhone (which must be tended to because it’s 70% of revenue) and the march to bring out the Apple Watch.

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The easiest would be to remove limitations on programmability, IMHO. Make it a real DynaBook.

Well, easiest and probably impossible at the same time.

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