Bill Gates’ Speech Recognition Predictions
Matthew Thomas has a great list. In fairness, Gates isn’t the only one to get this wrong. I remember the late Michael Dertouzos giving a talk, in 1997 I think, about what his lab was doing with speech recognition and how the technology was ready for the public. Around 2000 he gave almost the exact same talk. Gates also predicted about two years ago that we wouldn’t have spam today. (And his book originally suggested that there would be a way to factor large prime numbers, but I won’t hold him to that.)
I was horribly wrong about the iPod, and I wasn’t too impressed by the original iMac. Neither was Donald Norman, who ridiculed it as being the same machine as before under the colored shell. He’d mime the extension loading process and say that it still did that when it booted, so you knew it would still crash. Norman’s new book is something of an about face, making the case that the iMac’s fun styling actually makes it easier to use, because of the emotional state it puts the user in.
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I wouldn't worry too much about being wrong about the iPod. I said on MacSlash that it was overpriced, underfeatured, and I'd be surprised if Apple sold 2 of them.
Then that quote showed up in the "Cult of iPod" book. At least he didn't quote me by name. :)
That said, I stand by my prediction.
