{"id":27550,"date":"2019-12-12T16:04:20","date_gmt":"2019-12-12T21:04:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mjtsai.com\/blog\/?p=27550"},"modified":"2020-01-10T13:02:18","modified_gmt":"2020-01-10T18:02:18","slug":"apple-watch-and-airpods-have-overtaken-peak-ipod","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mjtsai.com\/blog\/2019\/12\/12\/apple-watch-and-airpods-have-overtaken-peak-ipod\/","title":{"rendered":"Apple Watch and AirPods Have Overtaken Peak iPod"},"content":{"rendered":"

Horace Dediu<\/a>:<\/p>\n

\n

This analysis helped me conclude the Apple Watch overtook the historic “peak iPod” which occurred in the fourth quarter of 2007 at $4 billion. My Watch revenue estimate was $4.2 billion in the fourth quarter of 2018.<\/p>\n

[…]<\/p>\n

Looking forward to the next quarter, I am expecting a 51% increase y\/y for Wearables and 24% growth in Watch. This results in a Watch revenues about $5.2 billion and non-Watch $5.7 billion. Now if we assume $1.7 billion for non-Watch-non-AirPods (i.e. Apple TV, HomePod, Beats, iPod, other) then this quarter AirPods will have overtaken peak iPod.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n

Update (2020-01-08): Kevin Rooke<\/a>:<\/p>\n

\n

Imagine a startup with $12 billion of revenue, 125%+ YoY revenue growth (two years in a row), and Apple-esque gross margins (30-50%). Without knowing anything else about the business, what would you value it at? $50 billion? $100 billion? More?<\/p>\n

That’s Apple’s AirPods business, the fastest-growing segment of the world’s most valuable company.<\/p>\n

[…]<\/p>\n

This is what AirPods revenue looks like compared to some of the world’s top tech companies. AirPods make as much money as Spotify, Twitter, Snap, and Shopify combined<\/em>.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n

Neil Cybart<\/a> (Hacker News<\/a>):<\/p>\n

\n

AirPods revenue does not exceed Spotify, Twitter, Snapchat, and Shopify revenue. It’s not even close either.<\/p>\n

[…]<\/p>\n

Not surprisingly, nearly every financial metric found in this screenshot is wrong. The assumptions about AirPods sales mix are wrong too.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n

Update (2020-01-10): Jason Snell<\/a>:<\/p>\n

\n

So when you read about Tim Cook emphasizing Services and Wearables to financial analysts or in a quick interview on CNBC come January 28—this is why. In less than half a decade, Services and Wearables have gone from afterthoughts to a third of Apple’s business.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Horace Dediu: This analysis helped me conclude the Apple Watch overtook the historic “peak iPod” which occurred in the fourth quarter of 2007 at $4 billion. My Watch revenue estimate was $4.2 billion in the fourth quarter of 2018. […] Looking forward to the next quarter, I am expecting a 51% increase y\/y for Wearables […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"apple_news_api_created_at":"2019-12-12T21:04:23Z","apple_news_api_id":"5b48d006-86bb-4323-9e65-14b0af5b6563","apple_news_api_modified_at":"2020-01-10T18:02:22Z","apple_news_api_revision":"AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAQ==","apple_news_api_share_url":"https:\/\/apple.news\/AW0jQBoa7QyOeZRSwr1tlYw","apple_news_coverimage":0,"apple_news_coverimage_caption":"","apple_news_is_hidden":false,"apple_news_is_paid":false,"apple_news_is_preview":false,"apple_news_is_sponsored":false,"apple_news_maturity_rating":"","apple_news_metadata":"\"\"","apple_news_pullquote":"","apple_news_pullquote_position":"","apple_news_slug":"","apple_news_sections":"\"\"","apple_news_suppress_video_url":false,"apple_news_use_image_component":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[1422,38,992,101,792],"class_list":["post-27550","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-technology","tag-airpods","tag-apple","tag-apple-watch","tag-business","tag-ipod"],"apple_news_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mjtsai.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27550","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mjtsai.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mjtsai.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mjtsai.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mjtsai.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=27550"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/mjtsai.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27550\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":27831,"href":"https:\/\/mjtsai.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27550\/revisions\/27831"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mjtsai.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=27550"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mjtsai.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=27550"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mjtsai.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=27550"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}